Travis Kidson 6/20/22 Travis Kidson 6/20/22

2022 Q2 Newsletter

Hello all,

For this newsletter, we wanted to focus on providing some perspective on the current market conditions. We understand the concerns individuals have. Periods such as these are challenging to watch, however, they are temporary.

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Markets

Markets this year have been volatile. As you have likely heard us say, we were expecting a pullback after the strong returns in 2021. What we were not expecting was the level of inflationary growth and the geopolitical war in Eastern Europe, all occurring within a short 6-month period. Below are a few of the global events tangled together that have created a challenging investment environment:

China’s Zero COVID policy causing disruptions to the supply of goods
Companies are understaffed and have been increasing wages to attract people
Energy prices had been high even before the war in Ukraine
The sanctions on Russia and the war have removed major sources of wheat and fertilizers
Rising interest rates are causing some large investors to indiscriminately sell all their investments, in effect throwing the baby out with the bath water.

Our investment process on the other hand doesn’t waiver. We continue to have an objective view on your portfolios and try to balance not making knee jerk reactions with taking advantage of opportunities to manage risk. Below is an example of some of the metrics we look for when selecting our companies to invest in. Without reading the name of the company below, we have highlighted some of the annual financial numbers they produce, dating back to 2007.

* numbers in the millions (000,000.00)

Not all years saw an increase in sales, net income, or their share price. But over 16 years of market volatility, an investor would have been well rewarded.

News outlets tend to focus on the changes we are going through and the disruptions all around us. We deliberately included the period of the Great Recession (2007-2009), which saw large swings in the market. This company’s worst performing period during the Great Recession was down about 50%.

This year it is off 29% from its peak in December. However well-run companies will continue to execute their strategy and grow overtime. The chart below is the stock price of this same company from 2007 to today. The company has had periods of pullbacks throughout the 16-year period, but the long-term trend is up and to the right!

The company: Microsoft

However, you could do the same analysis of many well-run companies within your investments.

In the meantime, the media will continue to sell fear to catch your attention.

Part of the problem, is we have lived through the last two years where we could not:

Go out
See friends and family
Travel

Just when we start to see an end to restrictions and the possible return to normal, inflation starts to peak, central banks raise interest rates and war has been thrust upon Ukraine. All of us feel we have had it – and rightfully so! This market downturn is emotionally harder to deal with than the period of 2008 and 2009.

Our expectation is markets will look for inflationary growth to cooldown and supply chain issues to show signs of repair before confidence is restored. We don’t know when this will happen however would like to highlight the importance of being patient over the next couple of months. Given markets are much closer to the bottom today than in January 2022, we see many of the companies currently owned in your portfolio as being on sale (food for thought!).

We wanted to leave you with the chart below. This represents the top 500 companies in the US (S&P500 index) over the last 80 years. Blue represents times when markets are going up (bull market) and orange represents times when markets are going down (bear markets). Typically, we see prolonged periods of bull markets followed by relatively short (temporary) periods of bear markets. Every time these occur, it’s easy to think this can last forever – however we always have found a way through.

The chart above shows that approximately 70% of the time markets move up. If you were to go to a Vegas slot machine, knowing that every time you pulled the lever your odds of winning were 70%, you would never stop.

If you have questions, please don’t hesitate to contact us.

Travis Kidson, B.Sc, CFP®, CIM®
Portfolio Manager | iA Private Wealth
Insurance Advisor | iA Private Wealth Insurance Agency
700-609 Granville St. Vancouver, BC
p: 604 895 3486
travis@beaconwealthpartners.ca

Jack Fournier B.Sc, FMA, CIM®
Portfolio Manager | iA Private Wealth
Insurance Advisor | iA Private Wealth Insurance Agency
700-609 Granville St. Vancouver, BC
p: 604 895 3348
jack@beaconwealthpartners.ca

This information has been prepared by Travis Kidson and Jack Fournier who are Portfolio Managers for iA Private Wealth Inc. and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of iA Private Wealth. The information contained in this newsletter comes from sources we believe reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or reliability. The opinions expressed are based on an analysis and interpretation dating from the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Furthermore, they do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any of the securities mentioned. The information contained herein may not apply to all types of investors. The Portfolio Managers can open accounts only in the provinces in which they are registered.

iA Private Wealth Inc. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada. iA Private Wealth is a trademark and business name under which iA Private Wealth Inc. operates.

Insurance products are provided through iA Private Wealth Insurance Agency which is a trade name of PPI Management Inc. Only products and services offered through iA Private Wealth Inc. are covered by the Canadian Investors Protection Fund.

Beacon Wealth Partners is a personal trade name of Jack Fournier and Travis Kidson.

Travis Kidson 12/16/20 Travis Kidson 12/16/20

2020 Q4 Newsletter

Looking Ahead
Data as the New Oil
Optimism and Fatigue
Looking Back
Holiday Spirit
Recipes

Looking Ahead

Market pundits draw on historical behaviour to make estimates of future behaviour. This works reasonably well during “normal” markets, but you don’t need us to tell you that 2020 was not normal. When the virus began to spread early this year, we did not know what the rate of infection was or how deadly it would be. We did not know how we would cope and how long it would take to learn how to treat and to develop a vaccine. Fear was prevalent and markets dipped rapidly.

You know what happened next: Human ingenuity.

Companies were already incorporating more and more technological solutions, the pandemic has accelerated that process.

Expectations for 2021 include an extension of government programs for a few more months to help those the most affected, continuing low interest rates and low inflation. Vaccination will become widely available over the coming months, allowing a return towards normalcy and a reduction of those government efforts. A new US administration should also ease trade and other policy uncertainties. As this happens, economic activity will broaden and businesses able to innovate and become more efficient/productive will benefit. (More on this below.)

Data as the New Oil

In May of 2017 The Economist ran an article: “Fuel of the future, data is giving rise to a new economy”. The argument it made was that “Data are to this century what oil was to the last one: a driver of growth and change.”

An article this month “Reasons to be cheerful: The pandemic could give way to an era of rapid productivity growth” discusses why there has been a lag in seeing improved productivity numbers (and growth) from the use of data.

While collecting the flood of data has been the first challenge for businesses, the major one has been creating the tools (algorithms) to benefit from this data (an analogy from Google is that algorithms are the recipe to the ingredients of data). Artificial intelligence is the broad term used to describe using this data effectively. Economists label AI as a general purpose technology that, like electricity did, has the ability to boost productivity across many industries. But it takes time and experiments to do so. One study suggest the results follow a J curve, with an initial drop in productivity and growth as companies struggle to incorporate solutions, but at some point it all comes together and growth rapidly increases.

The argument in the recent article suggests the pandemic has forced companies to adapt quicker, make better use of digitization, automation and better use existing resources. Old analogue habits can no longer be relied on to struggle forward (see the chart above). Businesses will change and new opportunities will be found. Which is another reason to be optimistic for markets in 2021.

Optimism and Fatigue

We are all getting tired of this - not being able to see friends and family in person, go to events or travel.

On a positive note, our government has started working with many different companies on vaccines to ensure we have access once they became approved, though perhaps not all the options will be viable. We are all aware of the rapid rise in infection rates since September, the graph below illustrates our (much lower) infection rate compared to the US and Europe.

The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine has begun to arrive in Canada, but even with all the pre-orders from many different providers, it is going to be several months before a significant number of us are able to be vaccinated.

A useful analogy to the fatigue we are all feeling is the “wall” marathoners have to push through. This wall (often referred to as the halfway point) occurs around mile 20 of the 26 mile marathon, as the last 6 miles can take as long to run as the first 20. We are probably at this point in pandemic, the end is almost in sight but it will become increasingly hard on all of us to get through to the other side.

Christmas will be a challenge this year in many ways. Over the last few years, our year end newsletter would list some things to do over the holidays, for 2020 the list has been whittled down to grocery shopping and walking at midnight to maintain a safe bubble!

Highlights will be driving through Granville Island or by the Legislature in Victoria to look at the lights.

Looking Back

What were people thinking about over this last year? It is easy to forget everything that has happened, and we enjoyed the following list of top Google searches from CTV: https://www.ctvnews.ca/lifestyle/these-were-canadians-top-google-searches-in-2020-1.5223360

Holiday Spirit

We found the following commercial from Tim Hortons as an uplifting reminder of the holidays in Canada and we hope you enjoy it too: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QUzOcCIcPYI

Recipes

We wanted to include a couple of ideas for Christmas, one simple downsized idea for turkey and one decadent choice to spoil yourselves.

Check out our recipe page here: https://www.beaconwealthpartners.ca/recipes

We wish you health, happiness and tranquility over the holiday season.

Travis Kidson, B.Sc., CFP®
Investment Advisor
HollisWealth, a division of IA Securities Inc.
Insurance Advisor
Hollis Insurance Agency
Tel: 604 895 3486 / 1-800-665-2030
travis.kidson@holliswealth.com

Jack Fournier, B.Sc., FMA
Investment Advisor
HollisWealth, a division of IA Securities Inc.
Insurance Advisor
Hollis Insurance Agency
Tel: 604 895 3348 / 1-800-665-2030
jack.fournier@holliswealth.com

This information has been prepared by Jack Fournier and Travis Kidson, who are Investment Advisors for HollisWealth® and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of HollisWealth. The information contained in this newsletter comes from sources we believe reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or reliability. The opinions expressed are based on an analysis and interpretation dating from the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Furthermore, they do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any of the securities mentioned. The information contained herein may not apply to all types of investors. The Investment Advisor can open accounts only in the provinces in which they are registered.

*Insurance products are provided through Hollis Insurance Agency. Only services offered through HollisWealth®, a division of Industrial Alliance Securities Inc. are covered by the Canadian Investor Protection Fund.

Travis Kidson 10/1/20 Travis Kidson 10/1/20

Q3 2020 Newsletter

2020 Q3 Newsletter

October 1st 2020

It is hard to believe that we are heading into October, in one sense time slowed down during the lock down, in another it seems we missed summer completely.

We were each able to get away for the odd weekend trip on either the Island or the interior, which helped recharge the batteries after a few stressful months. But Covid still seems to dominate conversations and news on TV. Numbers are starting to creep up again throughout the world, and Canada is no exception. With restrictions loosening and the capacity to increase the number of daily tests, this could be an expected result. However, we are still hopeful that everyone is staying safe and taking the necessary precautions.

As we start to adapt to the new normal it is encouraging to see some of the advancements in ideas. The sporting world is a great example with the NBA and NHL each having success in the environmental ‘bubble’ they have created. It is weird watching games with no fans (or virtual) however we are grateful sports are back on.

We don’t need to tell you that all eyes are on the upcoming US election and the fight over a new Supreme Court nominee. The New York Times report on Trump’s taxes makes us wonder what the prosecutors in The Southern District of New York have uncovered so far. These new revelations are unlikely to sway his supporters, but may be one more factor for those who are undecided. More on this below.

Advisor Conference: Upcoming Changes

Last week we attended our advisor conference. Quite a change from last year as everything was done digitally and although we missed the social interaction of speaking with other teams, we sure enjoyed the flexibility of being able to watch it in the office.

There are a couple of changes being made that we wanted to share with you:

The company is in the process of launching a new online client portal to view your investment accounts, access performance data, get tax documents and other information. Our Digital Solutions team are very focused on making it easy for you to enroll and gain access. We will be in touch shortly about what to do. These changes are coming into effect before the end of 2020.
The firm is in the process of creating a mobile app for the client portal. Estimates are it will be complete at some point towards the back end of 2021.

Overall, we were incredibly pleased and excited with the direction the firm is heading. Over the last few years, they did an excellent job at taking advisor feed back on various topics and have implemented changes that should benefit everyone.

Annually the conference always selects a charity to support, and this year it was the Food Bank of Canada. A charity that helps underprivileged families have access to healthy foods. This initiative was on most of our minds as COVID has really affected lower income families. Collectively, both the advisors and firm, we were able to raise just under $40,000.00. Should you choose to donate please visit the site here: https://www.foodbankscanada.ca/

Market Trends and Updates:

Over the last number of weeks, we have heard from several different pension/fund managers and economists that the pandemic has accelerated the adoption of a number of trends. The take up of both e-commerce and tele-health will be greater now than if the pandemic had not occurred. Our ability to use these services is due to the digital transformation of global businesses and governments, which will depend on Cloud data centers and increasing the ability of “data mining”. What was expected to take 7 to 8 years at the end of 2019 will likely now be achieved in 4 to 5 years. It does make us wonder why some improvements were not implemented earlier: as an example, Jack had to renew his driver’s license, an appointment was made online and he completed his renewal at the ICBC office within 10 minutes.

In a presentation at our conference, one manager highlighted that this is the first year since 1900 where we have experienced all four of the following in the same year: major environmental issues, a pandemic, social unrest, and a highly divisive contested US Presidential election. Thus, feeling a little overwhelmed seems a natural reaction!

July and August picked up from where we left off in June with markets having strong rallies and at times looking unphased by the global pandemic. September volatility brought us back to reality, and markets have attained more reasonable levels. This may have been caused in part by profit taking and a global resurgence in rates of new COVID cases. Central banks around the world are going to continue to keep interest rates low for quite some time which indicates the impact this virus is having on global economic activity.

If you are an avid reader or listener to market news, I’m sure you have now heard of the phrase V or U shaped recovery. This is a term used to describe the direction of markets over the last 8 months, with a sharp decline followed by a sharp incline. One fund manager suggested a better way to think of this recovery as being K shaped, with certain sectors doing well and others doing poorly. As mentioned before, technology has been the major driver in the stock market recovery, it continues to improve our personal and professional live. Sectors such as commercial real estate, banking, tourism/travel, industrials, and utilities have lagged. These sectors likely will not start to turn around until we have more certainty on the containment of the virus and unemployment numbers start to reduce back to pre-COVID levels.

US Elections

We find this question so common whenever a US election is approaching. From an investment perspective we are not overly concerned on who wins. If President Trump is re-elected most of his policies have already been implemented and therefore would not have any major impact on companies. Biden on the other hand is a centrist, known for working on both sides of the aisle to come up with solutions. His main fiscal platform currently discusses increasing the tax on very wealthy individuals, and to adjust corporate tax rates, but keep them lower than before 2017. With any politician, a primary goal is to keep the party electable and this won’t happen with drastic 180-degree policy shifts. Changes in power may result in short pockets of volatility, however over longer periods of time most North American governments do not have a huge impact on markets.

Historically the US market has performed better in times when Democrats are in power.

Unlimited Paid Vacation?!:

Technology companies continue to push boundaries with innovative ideas and solutions. Some are now changing the traditional way employees are awarded paid vacation. Netflix offers their employees unlimited paid vacation. There rationale is simply that unlike in the industrial economy (like factories) where people are measured by how long they work on the job, such as 9 to 5, the technological economy is more focused on ideas and inspiration. If someone does this in 8 or 4 hours a day is irrelevant to the company. Therefore, why should they measure if someone works 50 or 48 weeks of the year.

Interestingly enough, Netflix said on average people take 18 business days off per year.

This video can be seen here: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2020-09-09/why-netflix-offers-workers-unlimited-vacation-video

Thanksgiving Recipe:

Glazed Root Vegetable Tarte Tatin:

2 medium carrots, peeled
2 medium parsnips, peeled
2 small sweet potatoes, peeled
2 turnips, peeled
1/4 cup olive oil
sea salt and cracked pepper
1/3 cup of water
1 cup of sugar
1 TBLS of red wine vinegar
100g of parmesan cheese sliced or grated
4 sheets of frozen butter pull pastry, thawed
1 bunch thyme

Preheat oven to 425 F. Slice carrots, parsnips, sweet potatoes and turnips into 1 cm thick rounds. Divide between 2 oven trays and drizzle with olive oil and sprinkle with salt and pepper. Cook for 30 minutes turning half way through.

While vegetables are roasting, place water and sugar in medium sauce pan over medium heat. Cook until sugar has dissolved. Increase heat to high for 6-8 minutes, stirring as you go, until light caramel in colour. Remove from heat and carefully add red wine vinegar, stirring to combine. Immediately after, pour caramel into a large roasting pan. Arrange vegetables on top of the caramel and top with cheese. Then place 4 sheets of pasty over the top of the vegetables allowing 1 inch to overhang around the edge on pan. Press pastry to seal and tuck in the overhanging edges.

Reduce oven to 400 F and place tart on an oven tray to catch spills. Bake for 20 minutes. Then reduce oven temperature to 350 F and bake for another 20 minutes. Remove from over and let stand for 5 minutes before inverting onto a board.

Top with thyme and cut into squares to serve. Serves 8-10.

In Conclusion:

It has been an unusual and stressful year for everyone and while there are hopeful signs, we still do not know when life will return to some semblance of normality. We hope you are able to keep close to your friends and family and we wish you a Happy Thanksgiving.